Workforce Development: Tech receding, healthcare rising?

Written By Marc Casale

June 11, 2025 | Written by Marc Casale

The Great Pathway Pivot

Tech receding, healthcare rising?

Last time, we unpacked the slow-motion crisis in entry-level hiring. Now we turn to the big pivot reshaping the future of workforce pathways: tech is slowing, healthcare is surging, and it’s time to shift our bets.

What We See

The last 15 years of pathway development work has belonged to Tech. Between the “Learn to code” meme, bootcamps exploding everywhere, STEM nonprofits starting and scaling and hundreds of new training programs being launched to prepare people for tech jobs, at times, it felt like the entire workforce development field was focused on feeding the software economy. 

Putting aside whether these programs truly changed hiring culture in tech (thinking they probably didn’t), we now need to face the hard truth that we steered an entire generation towards computer science degrees…and that bet might not pay off.  

AI is crushing demand for entry-level coders. If you listen to tech CEOs (like Salesforce’s Marc Benioff), one skilled developer with an Agent can now do the work of a small team of entry-level coders. 

And the data backs it up. There are 35% fewer job listings for software engineers now than in 2020 over a period where all other industries saw a 10% increase over that same time period (check out this great breakdown of FRED data by the “Pragmatic Engineer”). 

This isn’t just an entry-level slowdown. It’s a broader shift. Tech is aging. Startups are out, mature companies are in. Growth is out, margins are in. And, despite their choice of President, American jobs are out and outsourcing is in – with coding farms popping up all over lower cost markets in Europe and Asia. There are fewer software engineers employed in the US today than there were in 2018 (Good analysis from ADP). Unthinkable a decade ago.

So where will pathway work turn? Our bet is Healthcare. 

The trends favor jobseekers: An aging population, post-COVID labor shortages, and huge demand across clinical and non-clinical roles. 

According to a 2024 analysis of BLS data: 

  • Healthcare accounted for 31% of all US job growth in 2024 

  • Nearly 700,000 new jobs added, a 17% year-over-year increase 

It’s not just the growth that makes healthcare a great fit for pathway development. It has some structural advantages: 

  • A mix of accessible, lower-barrier jobs (home health aid, CNAs, admin roles) 

  • Clear pathways to higher-wage careers (nursing, techs, allied health) 

  • Diverse employment settings: hospitals, home care, long-term care 

Funding is starting to follow the trends. Most notably, Bloomberg Philanthropies is putting serious money into the space including a $250M initiative for healthcare-focused high schools, plus major investments in HBCU medical schools and Johns Hopkins.

What It Could Mean

Building pathways in healthcare is a different proposition than building them in tech and it comes with both advantages and potential hurdles. 

  • Healthcare already uses an apprenticeship model. It just doesn’t call it that. Many roles require clinical placements or hands-on training, but these are often unpaid. Shifting to paid, structured apprenticeships is a big cultural shift. This is similar to what we see in education which has its history of student teaching.

  • Unions are a real factor and a real opportunity. Unlike tech, healthcare has strong union participation, especially in hospitals and among nurses. That creates complexity around labor rules but also opens doors. Groups like SEIU’s training fund are already acting as funders for many pathway programs. Unions believe in skill development and career progression. And if Labor gets behind your program, it will scale.  

  • Colleges and community colleges already have solid healthcare pathways but they’re at capacity. The infrastructure exists, but programs are struggling to grow fast enough to meet demand. 

  • Healthcare is a better fit for regional systems, at least for now. One thing that always frustrated tech employers was the local nature of workforce development systems, especially as remote work took over and hiring became national. They wanted partners that could scale with them. Healthcare still mostly operates regionally, which makes local partnerships more natural. But industry consolidation is picking up, and we’re starting to see more multi-state systems. This will create an opportunity for high-capacity pathway programs to work at a national scale. 

  • Licensure is a constraint, but it can also be a strength. Most healthcare roles are standardized and regulated. That can create barriers, but it also means once a pathway is unlocked, it’s easier to scale and replicate across states. It also means we have a shared definition of credentials that matter in this industry which means trainees can take them with them wherever they go and they can transfer across job markets without getting re-trained (just re-certified).  

There is an opportunity for big thinking and big bets in healthcare pathway development. It’s not going to feel as “hype-y” as the last tech cycle, but we have the chance to make more sustainable, meaningful progress. And in the process, rebuild our healthcare workforce.

And this is a good time to remember that STEM was never supposed to mean “just tech.” It’s a good time for our nonprofits and funders to pivot toward healthcare, toward real careers, and toward systems that work for more people.

Change is here. Can we meet the moment?

Next week in Part 3, we’ll pull the lens back further to look at the policy scaffolding that supports (or stalls) this change – and how a federal shake-up could remake the entire system.

Marc Casale
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Workforce Development: A Crisis in Entry-Level Hiring