Strategizing for a Skilled Workforce Future

Can Washington State Close a 600,000-Worker Shortfall?

Client: Washington Roundtable
Services: Labor Market Analysis, Credential Gap Analysis, Strategic Recommendations
Focus Areas: Secondary and Post-secondary Education, Workforce Development

The Workforce Gap

Washington’s economy is projected to grow 12.8% between 2023 and 2032—well above the national average of 2.8%. But this growth faces a major constraint: a projected shortage of nearly 600,000 credentialed workers in the coming decade.

More specifically:

  • 301,000 workers with bachelor’s and advanced degrees

  • 67,000 with associates degrees

  • 228,000 with certifications, apprenticeships, and other training credentials

Without new strategies, this gap could limit growth, sideline hundreds of thousands of Washingtonians, and jeopardize the state’s competitive edge.

From Data to Insights

Kinetic West has been a trusted research partner to the Washington Roundtable for years and together, we launched a multi-phased initiative to go beyond traditional labor forecasts and produce insights that could drive policy and system change.

This work work combined rigorous analysis with future-focused modeling:

  • Labor Market Demand Analysis: Identified high-growth industries and occupations by examining job demand, wages, and occupational trends, focusing on roles that offer living wages, mobility, and resilience to automation.

  • Economic Trend Forecasting: Modeled job demand under multiple scenarios, integrating factors like the clean energy transition, the CHIPS Act, infrastructure investments, and advances in AI.

  • Credential Pipeline Projection: Estimated future credential attainment by blending enrollment, completion, and migration trends to project supply across degree types and training pathways.

  • Sector Deep Dives: Conducted focused analyses of healthcare, clean energy, and education to highlight sector-specific growth, credential needs, and workforce innovations.

  • Development of Actionable Insights: Translated findings into recommendations to inform Washington Roundtable’s Education Strategy and 2025 legislative agenda. 

This comprehensive, iterative approach ensured that our projections weren’t just reactive to past trends, but proactive in shaping Washington’s talent strategy for a fast-evolving economic landscape. 

Key Findings

Our analysis revealed:

  • More than 75% of projected job openings will require postsecondary credentials.

  • Current education and training systems are not producing talent at the needed volume or with the right skills.

  • An oversupply of uncredentialed workers could sideline over 250,000 Washingtonians, leaving them with fewer opportunities for upward mobility.

Strategic Recommendations

To close the gap, we identified strategies to expand and better align Washington’s talent pipeline:

  • Expand Bachelor’s Degree Production – Fill open capacity at four-year institutions, grow applied bachelor’s programs, and streamline transfer pathways from community and technical colleges.

  • Promote High-Value Credentials – Prioritize associate degrees, applied bachelor’s, apprenticeships, and stackable credentials tied to high-demand jobs.

  • Focus on High-Need Occupations – Align training with career clusters in healthcare, clean energy, and education.

  • Support Employer-Led Training – Leverage employer insights and initiatives like Career Connect Washington to guide systems.

  • Leverage K–12 Education – Provide students early access to postsecondary coursework to ensure high school graduates are prepared for further education and training.

From Insight to Action

Sustained, equitable growth requires (1) aligning credentials with real career opportunities, (2) ensuring students and workers see clear value in their education, and (3) fostering public-private partnerships that can scale solutions across sectors.

Read the full Skill Up for Our Future report for the full analysis and recommendations for actionable strategies for aligning education pathways with workforce opportunities that support economic mobility.

Tackling a workforce challenge of your own?

Kinetic West brings rigorous analysis and actionable, data-driven strategies to help partners align education and training systems with economic growth.


Contact: merilee.teylan@kineticwest.com to learn more.